Economic Survey, Autumn 2014
Economic growth in the United States is forecast to come in at almost 3% this year and next, and to accelerate even further in 2016. Growth in China will remain at around 7%, and the Japanese economy also looks set to recover to a steady growth rate of 1½%. After two years of negative growth it is expected that the euro area will rebound to growth of around 1%, and the growth forecast for the next couple of years is 1½%.
In 2014 Finnish GDP is expected to show zero growth. The forecast includes a very moderate economic upturn, with this year’s internal growth moving into positive territory. Net exports will have a definite positive impact on economic growth, and they are the most significant growth-driving factor this year. Private consumption will show no growth from last year, and private investment will fall by 4.6% mainly as a result of sluggish investment in residential construction and investment in machinery and equipment. The situation in the labour market will continue to deteriorate. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 8.6%, and employment will fall by 0.4% from the previous year. Inflation will come in at 1.1%, with changes to indirect taxation accounting for around half a percentage point this year and next.
In 2015 growth will pick up to 1.2% and become more broadly based. Private consumption will increase somewhat, by 0.3%. Exports growth will be slower than world trade growth, and therefore the loss of market shares will continue. The situation in the labour market will continue to remain weak. Unemployment will edge down to 8.5% from the year before and employment will increase by close to half a per cent. Labour market mismatch problems remain significant, and the level of structural unemployment is high. It is forecast that inflation will remain at around 1½%.
In 2016 economic growth is predicted to come in at 1.4%. This growth will increasingly be driven by domestic demand. The contribution of net exports will also remain positive, although it is thought that Finnish exports will continue to grow more slowly than world trade.
Persistent cyclical weakness has resulted in a long-standing deficit in public finances, although the government’s adjustment efforts have helped to curb the growth of the deficit. The general government budgetary position is exacerbated by increasing expenditure associated with population ageing. The general government sector that is affected most by cyclical fluctuations is central government, particularly because of the high cyclical sensitivity of tax revenue. Central government is in deep deficit. However over the outlook period the deficit will shrink in response to adjustment efforts and rebounding economic growth.
