PUBLICATIONS OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE 2025:62

Economic Survey, Winter 2025

The recovery of Finland’s economy is delayed, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth is only 0.2 per cent this year. Growth has been slowed down by the weak domestic demand. However, households’ consumption is expected to pick up as purchasing power is growing and growth will accelerate next year. The recovery of the construction sector, the energy transition and defence materiel purchases will increase investments. GDP will grow by 1.1 per cent in 2026, by 1.7 per cent in 2027 and 1.6 per cent in 2028. Improvements are expected in employment in 2026–2028 as economic growth strengthens. Unemployment will fall from 9.6 per cent in 2025 to 8.5 per cent in 2028.

Despite the weak economic situation, the general government deficit will contract to 3.9 per cent of GDP this year as the adjustment measures take effect. Despite the improved economic situation, the general government deficit will deepen to 4.5 per cent next year, as the fighter jet purchases which were expected for this year will be included in the 2026 deficit. In the long term, the deficit remains deep: the increase in defence and interest rate expenditure and the moderate economic development maintain it at over 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2030. The debt ratio will increase to over 89 per cent this year and to nearly 92 per cent in 2026. Growth will continue throughout the outlook period, and in 2030, debt will amount to over 96 per cent of GDP.