PUBLICATIONS OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE 2025:51

Economic Survey, Autumn 2025

Finland’s GDP grew last year by 0.4 per cent at an annual level, and the economic recovery continues. Consumption will be boosted by the slowdown in inflation, declining interest rates and income tax reductions. Recovery of the construction sector, the energy transition and defence materiel purchases will increase investments. Growth in the economy is slowed down by the US tariff increases and the general uncertainty. GDP will grow by 1.0% in 2025, by 1.4% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. Employment will grow only in 2026 and 2027 as economic growth picks up. Unemployment will fall from 9.4% in 2025 to 8.4% in 2027.

General government finances are weighed down this year by the weak current situation and the slow economic growth. The economic growth forecast for the next few years and the Government’s adjustment measures will have only a moderate decreasing impact on the deficit, as defence investments, health and welfare service and debt servicing costs will increase expenditure. The general government deficit is 4.3 per cent of GDP this year and will decrease to around 3.6 per cent in 2026 and to around three per cent at the end of the outlook period. The debt ratio will momentarily stabilise in 2027, after which it will take an upward turn again and exceed 90 per cent in 2029.