Finland’s economy is recovering from recession, but trade disputes and uncertainty are delaying faster growth. Public finances are in dire need of a turnaround, as deficits remain deep and the debt ratio is threatening to rise above 90 per cent, according to the forecast published by the Ministry of Finance on 16 June.

The European Commission recommends that the Council of the EU activate the national escape clause for Finland. The recommendation is based on increasing defence spending. The Commission does not recommend opening an excessive deficit procedure.

The OECD sees vast potential for clean economic growth in Finland. However, structural reforms will be required to realise this potential. Among other things, the OECD recommends that Finland boost higher education, attract high-skilled immigrants and improve incentives for investments. Further adjustments to public finances are necessary due to rising defence spending.

The Finnish economy is expected to grow, but the trade war may substantially slow down growth. In its forecast published on 30 April, the Ministry of Finance warns that general government finances remain weak, and that Finland has few buffers to reduce the impacts of a trade war.

The General Government Fiscal Plan guides the planning public finances. It covers central government, wellbeing services counties, municipalities, statutory earnings-related pension funds and other social security funds.