Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2026:26

Economic Survey
Summer 2026

The recovery of the Finnish economy is being disrupted by uncertainty and the crisis in the Middle East. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2026. Growth is expected to accelerate to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028. Rising oil prices will weaken external demand and household purchasing power, which will slow both exports and private consumption. Defence-related and energy transition projects are boosting investments, but housing construction will remain sluggish until next year. Unemployment remains high, and there has yet to be any improvement in the employment situation, which will slow the recovery of domestic demand. Unemployment will exceed 10% this year.

The state of general government finances will remain weak despite the economic upturn. The general government deficit will reach 4.4% of GDP this year, due mainly to higher investment expenditure. Although the economic upturn will boost indirect tax revenue, high unemployment will still slow growth in earned income tax revenue and keep unemployment expenditure high. The deficit will stand at about 4.5% of GDP in the period 2027–2030. The debt-to-GDP ratio will probably exceed 90% this year, and in 2030, the debt is expected to be almost 99% of GDP.