Economic Survey, Winter 2017

Finnish economic growth will slow down to about two per cent in the forecast period. In the next few years, the economy will be supported by foreign trade and domestic demand.

Finland’s GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2017. Supported by a higher employment, private consumption will continue to grow, there are still no signs of a slowdown in housing construction and companies have made substantial investments in production capacity. Growth in world trade and economic expansion in most of our main export markets have helped Finnish exports to recover. In 2018, economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.4%. Driven by demand, exports are set to grow and Finland will no longer lose market shares. Net exports will continue to support growth throughout the forecast period. Growth in employment will pick up and is set to reach one per cent in 2018.

Wages will rise more rapidly in 2018 and 2019. Unit labour costs will continue to increase, albeit more slowly than in our competitors, and there will be a further improvement in the competitiveness of Finnish industries.

For the first time in many years, the public debt to GDP ratio declined in 2016. Rapid growth in Finland's GDP will cause the debt ratio to shrink, and it is expected to fall below 60% in 2019. With slower economic growth and a continuous increase in age-related expenditure, there is a danger that the debt ratio will start growing again in the next decade. In 2019, Finnish GDP is expected to grow by 1.9%.