Economic monitoring and forecasting
The Ministry of Finance monitors and forecasts economic development over the short, medium and long term. Economic monitoring serves as the foundation for forecasts. The Ministry of Finance’s Economics Department is an independent fiscal institution referred to in the Budgetary Framework Directive that is tasked with producing economic forecasts. The Economics Department has divided economic monitoring and forecasting tasks into macroeconomic forecasting and fiscal forecasting.
Economic forecasts
The Economics Department at the Ministry of Finance publishes economic forecasts four times a year: in spring, summer, autumn and winter.
In summer and winter, Economic Surveys provide a concise outlook for the immediate future, while in spring and autumn Economic Surveys provide a broader and more detailed analysis of the existing economic situation and outlook. In addition to the short-term economic outlook, the Economic Surveys also provide a medium term estimate of development. The Economic Survey published in the spring is used as background material in formulating the decisions on spending limits, while that published in the autumn provides background for the next year's budget proposal.
The forecasts and analyses of the Economics Department concerning economic development are based on the expertise of persons responsible for specific sectors and several modern tools. Among these tools is the Kooma model, a neo-Keynesian general equilibrium model used to conduct policy analyses and background assessments for forecasts.
Macroeconomics
The Economics Department at the Ministry of Finance monitors the trends in the economy from the perspective of macroeconomics. The key task of the department is to prepare the Government's economic policy. The department assesses the impacts of the economic policy measures and brings the national economy perspective to decision-making. The department participates in the preparation of the economic policy of the EU.
The latest publications of the Ministry of Finance can be found on the webpage Publications.