PUBLICATIONS OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE 2025:14

Economic Survey, Spring 2025

In 2024, Finland’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% at the annual level but the economy returned to growth during the year. A slowdown in inflation and fall in interest rates are boosting consumption. Recovery of the construction sector, energy transition and defence materiel purchases will increase investments. GDP will grow by 1.3% in 2025, by 1.6% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. The labour market recovery has been delayed, with significant improvements in employment now expected only in 2026 and 2027 as economic growth picks up. Unemployment will fall from 8.8% in 2025 to 7.9% in 2027. However, economic growth will be overshadowed by the United States’ trade policy. If the tariffs remain in effect, growth in 2025 and 2026 will be significantly lower than forecast.

General government financial deficit amounted to 4.4% of GDP in 2024. The financial deficit will be 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The deficit will remain above three percent until the end of the forecast period. This year, general government debt ratio will exceed 85% and will then gradually rise to almost 90% in 2029.