PUBLICATIONS OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE 2026:15

Economic Survey
Spring 2026

The recovery of the Finnish economy will be delayed because of the crisis in the Middle East and rising energy prices. GDP will grow by only 0.6 per cent in 2026, but growth is expected to accelerate to 1.7 per cent in 2027 and 2028. Rising oil prices will weaken external demand and households’ purchasing power, which will slow both exports and private consumption. Defence and energy transition projects will support investments, but housing construction will remain at a subdued level. Unemployment remains high, and the improvement in employment is delayed, which slows the recovery of domestic demand.

Despite sluggish economic growth, the general government deficit narrowed to 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2025. Although the adjustment measures will strengthen general government finances, the recording of fighter jet purchases as expenditure will increase the general government deficit this year. At the same time, the economic impacts of the crisis in the Middle East will also be gradually felt in Finland’s general government finances. In 2026–2029, the deficit will be 4.6 per cent of GDP. The deficit will gradually narrow towards the end of the outlook period but will remain high. Defence and interest expenditures are growing rapidly, while economic growth will be sluggish. As a result, the deficit will still amount to 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2030. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach about 91 per cent this year, and in 2030, the debt is expected to exceed 99 per cent of GDP.